Our latest Investment Strategy Quarterly provides informed insights on what the US economy looks like post-pandemic, the improving UK economy, the changing prices of crops, and asks ‘Is the average stock still worth owning?’. Read all this and more in Investment Strategy Quarterly: The Next Level Up.
Our Spring Budget Newsletter breaks down the Chancellor’s recent announcement, outlining what it means for you and helping you to plan for the new tax year – which is almost upon us.
In this month’s Market Commentary, Raymond James European Strategist, Jeremy Batstone-Carr, looks back on the strong performance of many of the world’s leading markets, the ongoing popularity of investment in artificial intelligence, and whether this current stock market strength can last.
Through fiscal year 2023, Raymond James maintained focus on people, environmental, social and governance opportunities as we sought to build a more sustainable future for clients, associates, wealth managers and the communities we serve.
Learn more in our Corporate Responsibility Report.
In the first Monthly Market Commentary of the year, Raymond James European Strategist, Jeremy Batstone-Carr, looks back on the largely positive start to the year for many of the world’s leading markets, the struggles of the Chinese economy, and areas for investors to consider for the coming months.
The first Investment Strategy Quarterly of the year discusses 10 themes for 2024, plus a look at bonds, energy security, and market performance in a presidential election year. Read all this and more in Investment Strategy Quarterly: 2024 Outlook.
In the last Monthly Market Commentary of the year, Raymond James’ European Strategist, Jeremy Batstone-Carr, looks back over November and discusses a shift in investor sentiment, contrasting economic performances, fiscal policy decisions in the UK and Europe, and more.
Our Autumn Statement Analysis breaks down the Chancellor’s recent announcement, outlining what it means for you and helping you to plan for the upcoming calendar year.
In this month’s Market Commentary, Raymond James European Strategist, Jeremy Batstone-Carr, discusses the reactions of the financial markets to the conflict in the Middle East. Plus, a look at inflation and interest rates.
Our latest Investment Strategy Quarterly looks at various geopolitical and macroeconomic themes, including consumer debt and employment, pension planning, and next year’s US election. Read all this and more in Investment Strategy Quarterly: Sailing on strange seas.
In this month’s Market Commentary, Raymond James’ European Strategist, Jeremy Batstone-Carr, discusses the global financial markets, takes a look at the UK and US economies, plus he examines recent challenges in China.
July has proved a strong month for investors in the financial markets, particularly across the stock markets of Western developed economies. Returns were generated against a backdrop of economic resilience, especially in the United States where, despite the Federal Reserve having raised interest rates in excess of 5.00%-points in little over a year, growth has persisted and even exceeded expectations.
This year marks the 110th edition of the Tour de France, the most prestigious bicycle race in the world. And like the markets, the Tour is always challenging—and evolving. The three-week, grueling 2,200+ mile route changes every year and, surprisingly, starts in different countries—this year in Spain versus the UK, the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, and Denmark over the previous five years! The point is, just like the Tour, economic and market cycles have different starting points, and no two routes are alike.
In this month’s Market Commentary, European Strategist, Jeremy Batstone-Carr, discusses inflation and affordability in the UK, debt ceiling negotiations and compromise in the US, plus how enthusiasm for artificial intelligence has shifted into overdrive, and more.
In this month’s Market Commentary, our European Strategist, Jeremy Batstone-Carr, discusses how the financial markets have proved to be resilient despite the push and pull of market forces, fast-moving geopolitics, and other pressures.
Our latest Investment Strategy Quarterly provides informed insights into a turbulent market with analysis on economic situations at both home and abroad, the questions facing policymakers and investors, plus reasons to be optimistic in the long term. Read all this and more in Investment Strategy Quarterly: Time is on Our Side.
Our Spring Budget Newsletter breaks down the Chancellor’s recent announcement, outlining what it means for you and helping you to plan for the new tax year – which is almost upon us.
In this month’s Market Commentary, Raymond James UK European Strategist, Jeremy Batstone-Carr, discusses a new term in the financial lexicon, a change in the market’s tone and why, despite the challenges ahead, there is cause for optimism in the long run.
In this month’s Market Commentary, Raymond James UK European Strategist, Jeremy Batstone-Carr, considers the impact of policy changes in China, plus a look at the UK equity market, the US dollar, and a spotlight on the world’s central bankers.
Our latest Investment Strategy Quarterly discusses the potential opportunities and challenges the new year may bring. With features broadly assessing the outlook for 2023, from an analysis of global developed markets to a search for context and opportunities against the backdrop of an economic slowdown. Read all this and more in Investment Strategy Quarterly: 2023 Outlook.
Financial markets continued their revival from the early summer lows through November as investors’ perceptions regarding the risks prevalent throughout 2022 diminished somewhat. That those risks had not disappeared completely was evidenced by violent protests breaking out across China at the end of the month in response to the new Chinese government’s apparent desire to persist with its aggressive “zero Covid” policy.
The line between Statements and Budgets has blurred in recent years. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s second major announcement was designated as an Autumn Statement, but it will have a greater financial impact than most Budgets. A broad range of tax increases and spending cuts ensures that will be the case, regardless of the Treasury branding.
Even those with the longest careers in the financial markets are struggling to remember a year quite as tumultuous as 2022 has proved to be. Military conflict in Ukraine and sabre-rattling over Taiwan have made headline news all year and served to intensify volatility across all international financial markets.
Having just completed our quarterly review we are writing to keep you abreast of the most recent changes that we have made to our portfolio models. The backdrop for our decisions is a global economy showing further signs of coming down through the gears.
Are you ready for some football? Not American football, but global football—otherwise known as soccer! For the five billion spectators awaiting the start of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar this November, the sport is the epitome of speed and agility. But for the players on the 32 participating teams, it is so much more. The deceptively simple-seeming game requires years of training. It goes beyond the fundamentals of ball control to pitch awareness, anticipation, and making the right decisions under duress quickly.
What the Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, presented to the House of Commons on Friday was definitively not a Budget; it was ‘The Growth Plan’. The sixth chancellor since 2016 was careful to avoid the B word, despite the huge sums of spending and borrowing that he announced – greater than in most, if not any, real Budgets, let alone mini-Budgets. When the Autumn Budget proper emerges – probably in November or December it is most unlikely to contain anywhere near such a wide range of radical and costly measures as were announced on 23 September.
The summer months are typically characterised by limited news, thin trading volumes and illiquid conditions which, can serve to accentuate moves in financial asset prices both to the up and the downside. The summer of 2022 has proved an exception.
The investing environment could hardly be more challenging. Global economic activity is slowing, Western developed economies are flirting with recession, inflationary pressures are extremely elevated, and Western central banks remain committed to raising interest rates in a concerted effort to bring them under control. The geopolitical backdrop is still as dark as ever; the war in Ukraine continues, China’s bellicose threats against the United States ahead of House speaker, Mrs Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Asia have become more pointed. Europe faces a natural gas shortage over the coming winter, Dr Mario Draghi’s Italian government has collapsed, while in the UK, the same fate has befallen Mr Boris Johnson’s administration.
More than 200 years ago, a French military officer stumbled across the Rosetta Stone, a 2000-year-old carving with clues to deciphering the Egyptian hieroglyphs that had puzzled the world for centuries. We don’t exactly have a Rosetta Stone for our perplexing market’s future – no one does. But just as the Rosetta Stone opened a window into Egypt’s mysterious past, we have some clues that might help investors crack the code in the coming months.
Every year is different from what you expect, and that is particularly true in financial markets. It is easier to say over the first five months of 2022 which investment areas have lost you money, especially if you also factor in the enhanced inflationary backdrop. There will always be some element of volatility in financial market investment, but it still plays the most essential role in any pension fund portfolio or medium-term financial target. What really matters is maintaining confidence during times of uncertainty.
Whilst the spring weather continues to warm, plenty of financial sector issues continue to worry global investors across both equity and bond markets. Meanwhile heightened inflation levels continued to impact bank account balances, and the war in Ukraine has led to many tragedies along with heightened geopolitical, commodity and supply concerns.
It has been 60 years since the Beatles signed their first record deal. The rock group from Liverpool dominated the industry for nearly a decade – and long after that as individual performers. John Lennon, Paul McCartney, George Harrison, and Ringo Starr created timeless tunes and memorable messages that we can borrow today to portray our economic and financial market outlook.
If a week is a long time in politics, then the near five months since Rishi Sunak’s second 2021 Budget feels close to a lifetime. Back on 27 October, it looked like 2022 would be a year of recovery in which the pandemic faded in the rear-view mirror and ‘transitory’ inflation duly transited to lower levels. It has not worked out like that.
Whilst our thoughts are with the people of the Ukraine and the troubling world events following Russia finally deciding to reveal its hand last week and staging a full-scale invasion, our role as wealth managers is to continue to look after our clients’ financial interests with an objective point of view.
Events in Eastern Europe over the last week have correctly dominated TV, radio, newspaper and online news. It also meant that almost all equity or bond investors made losses during February, many for the second consecutive month unless – like the U.K. equity market – there was high proportional exposure to commodity sector shares.
Welcome to 2022. We hope that you and those close to you are keeping fit and well. The key purpose of this newsletter is to update you on recent developments for us as a business.
There is a famous quote by the legendary Belgian professional cyclist Eddy Merckx that he “raced from 1 February to 31 October every year, competed for everything”. Unfortunately for financial markets there is never a defined season, and, whilst 2021 ended positively, January 2022 will go down into the history books as being a little bit more difficult.
Whilst the application of many millions of booster jabs have given a strong protection against the Omicron variant, offering the hope of COVID normalisation, global financial markets have not had a positive first few weeks of 2022.
We hope that this letter finds you and your loved ones keeping safe and well. We are approaching an important time for family and we hope that you get to enjoy the Christmas that you have been anticipating.
Athletes at the Olympic Winter Games will either taste the thrill of victory or the agony of defeat. The same can be said for investors, as the easy victories over the last two years will become more challenging and hard fought in the year ahead.
The key for writing any monthly report is not to do it too early, especially during the end of November which saw the word Omicron become much better known than just by followers of the Greek alphabet. Whilst progress against COVID-19 challenges have helped almost all developed market stock markets generate attractive returns year-todate, many indices fell during the second half of November following concerns about the new virus strain.
October was generally a positive month for global equity markets, helping to push many developed market indices to new 2021 highs. Whilst COVID-19 challenges remained material and new concerns about gas prices, petrol availability and general delivery concerns became more apparent during the month, so far the average third-quarter corporate earnings season number has been taken well. However, most fixed income markets have continued to struggle this year, even if many 10-year bond yields have not yet returned to levels seen earlier this year.
Less than eight months ago, Rishi Sunak presented a Budget that was anticipating the ending of the pandemic’s impact on the UK economy. He announced extensions and end dates for the furlough scheme, the self-employed income support scheme, reduced VAT for hospitality and the £20 a week uplift to Universal Credit. To finance some of that expenditure, the Chancellor also revealed a 6% increase in corporation tax, deferred until 2023.
As we sit atop our prosperous peak, admiring the views of the fastest economic growth since 1984, the best start to a bull market, and the record-breaking quarter of earnings growth, it’s wise to remember that not too long ago we began our uphill journey from the depths of the COVID-19 ravine. Often, the best views come after the hardest climbs. So now it’s time to catch our breath and peer over the horizon at what’s to come as we begin our descent from this peak. However, just as the summit of one mountain can become the base of another, the investment landscape goes on indefinitely, which makes adhering to a disciplined investment strategy of the utmost importance.
Hopefully you enjoyed a good summer break. August was another positive month for many financial markets, with one pan-European (including the U.K.) index achieving a seventh consecutive advance. Whilst 2021 started with material concerns about COVID-19 challenges, limited vaccination numbers and widespread lockdowns, progress has been made on all fronts. No doubt the late August news that seven further countries have been added to the U.K.’s green travel rules, will further boost hopes that a return to previous norms are closer.
Covid update
As we continue the cautious transition out of lockdown there is a lot to think about at home and at work. Lockdown has affected us all in different ways and it is only normal to feel uncertain about what the future holds in the shorter term.
For most investors focused on the U.K., Europe and/or the United States, July was far from an unattractive month in all but a minority of equity sectors. This pleasingly allowed a further building of year-to-date returns. Meanwhile bond market yields generally tightened further. Although fixed income markets remain on average dull performers in 2021, performance has improved in recent months.
Americans, bored in their COVID-induced ‘bubbles,’ turned to board games for fun last year, boosting sales 300%. They rolled the dice, drew the cards, and buffed the skills of cooperation, problem solving, emotional intelligence, and reflective logic — the same competencies critical to successful investment strategies. So, we couldn’t help looking back nostalgically to our favourite games — and probably yours — as we look forward to crafting a sustainable investment game plan.
The fifth month of 2021 will not go down as an important month for global investors. Most equity and bond market investors made some positive – but relatively modest – gains during May. And whilst COVID-19 vaccination progress across many countries has been notable over recent weeks, the general economic outlook across the U.K., United States and Europe has recently improved. Certainly underlying confidence for the rest of this year and into 2022 has improved over recent weeks.
April was another interesting month, with gains across almost all global stock markets led by the United States, but closely followed by the U.K. and Europe. Whilst the former two were significantly aided by continued COVID-19 vaccine progress and associated national reopening, Europe has started to make some progress too.